In recent weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to surpass the significant price level of approximately $98.7k, suggesting the possibility of a midterm correction. This development implies that the much-anticipated $100k milestone might have to wait before any sustained bullish momentum can materialize. Additionally, there’s been a noticeable decline in Bitcoin’s daily active addresses and whale activities over the past week. A rebound in these metrics is typically necessary to ensure a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the near future.
Short-term Targets for Bitcoin
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin’s price action suggests the formation of a potential midterm reversal pattern. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlights that, on the one-hour chart, Bitcoin is developing a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is accompanied by bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Should Bitcoin continue to face resistance at the $98.7k level, Martinez suggests that a decline towards $90k may be unavoidable. If bearish sentiment persists, Bitcoin could experience a further drop to the support level above $85k before any new bullish momentum can be established.
Mixed Activities from Whale Investors
On-chain data analysis from IntoTheBlock reveals mixed activities among whale investors. Long-term holders are gradually reducing their Bitcoin balances, currently holding around 12.45 million BTCs, marking the lowest level since July 2022. However, this ongoing decrease in Bitcoin holdings among long-term investors is significantly less severe compared to previous cycles.
Reports from Coinpedia indicate that institutional fear of missing out (FOMO), driven by entities like MicroStrategy and BlackRock’s IBIT, has contributed to a reduction in Bitcoin’s supply on centralized exchanges. Over the past four weeks, the total Bitcoin supply on these exchanges has decreased by over 123k, standing at approximately 2.27 million at the time of writing. This declining supply could have implications for Bitcoin’s price dynamics as the market continues its consolidation phase.
Conclusion: Navigating Uncertain Waters
In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s recent inability to breach the $98.7k level suggests potential challenges ahead, various factors could influence its price trajectory in the coming weeks. The decline in daily active addresses and whale activities indicates caution among investors, while mixed signals from long-term holders and institutional interest highlight the complexity of the current market environment. As Bitcoin navigates these uncertain waters, traders and investors will need to closely monitor both technical patterns and on-chain data to make informed decisions.
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