Over the past month, Bitcoin has demonstrated a notable increase, recording a surge of 8.5%. In contrast, Ethereum has faced a decline of 1.0% during this same period. Observing the Bitcoin Spot ETF market since October 15, there has been just a single day of negative inflow, with yesterday witnessing an impressive inflow of +$472.60M. Meanwhile, the 2-year US Treasury Bond Yield, which stood at approximately 5.035% in late April, has now decreased to 4.154%.
According to analyst Michael van de Poppe, there’s a distinct correlation between Bitcoin’s market growth and the sustained positive inflows in the Bitcoin ETF market. In contrast, Ethereum’s market decline seems to be linked to the dropping US Treasury yield. Let’s delve into these trends for a deeper understanding.
Bitcoin Rises with Strong ETF Inflows
Since hitting a low of $60,311 on October 10, Bitcoin has experienced a significant rise of 18.23%. This month, the Bitcoin Spot ETF market has been characterized by robust positive inflows. On October 25, the market recorded an inflow of +401.20M, and just yesterday, this figure climbed to an impressive +472.60M. Notably, IBIT, one of the leading BTC Spot ETF issuers, has not reported a single outflow since October 15, with an impressive inflow of +$308.40M observed yesterday.
Altcoin Market Impacted by Declining Yields
At the beginning of this month, the dominance of cryptocurrencies outside the top ten was 10.27%. As of now, it has decreased to 9.31%, reflecting a 9.34% decline over the period. On October 21, Ethereum experienced a significant drop from a monthly peak of $2,747, with the current price hovering around $2,623 as the market struggles to recover.
The 2-year US Treasury Bond Yield started the month at 3.609%, peaked at 4.025% on October 9, and subsequently fell to 3.939% on October 16. Presently, the bond yield index is 4.154%, marking at least a 21.25% decrease from the yearly peak of 5.037%.
Upcoming US Economic Events and Market Volatility
Today, the US market anticipates two significant economic events: the US JOLTs Job Openings and the US CB Consumer Confidence reports. These events hold the potential to impact market dynamics significantly. In August, the US Job Openings index was at 8.04 million, a notable increase from July’s 7.71 million. The consensus for this month suggests it might decrease to 7.99 million.
Meanwhile, last month’s US CB Consumer Confidence index was 98.7, falling short of the forecasted 103.9. In contrast, August’s figure was 105.6, exceeding the forecast of 100.9. Experts caution that these crucial economic events could introduce volatility into the crypto market, particularly affecting Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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