The ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to draw attention, with important court deadlines approaching. The U.S. Court of Appeals has outlined a timeline for the case, requiring Ripple to submit a mediation questionnaire by December 23, 2024, followed by an opening brief due on March 6, 2025. Ripple’s response to the brief is expected by April 7, 2025. However, these proceedings could face potential delays due to a looming U.S. government shutdown.
Ripple’s Hopes and Criticisms
Despite the challenging circumstances, Ripple remains optimistic about the possibility of the case being dismissed. Yet, some critics, including former SEC official John Reed Stark, argue that the current ruling creates ambiguity. Stark contends that the decision fails to adequately protect retail investors, potentially complicating the arguments cryptocurrency companies use to assert that their tokens are not securities.
Community Reactions and Speculations
The XRP community is both perplexed and eager regarding the case’s duration. Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel shared his thoughts on social media, highlighting the appeal process’s potential length, estimated to be about a year. He also noted the possibility, albeit rare, of a new administration deciding to dismiss the appeal altogether. Such a move, though unprecedented, could significantly alter the case’s trajectory.
Political Dynamics and Future Implications
Stark has also expressed concerns over a potential conflict between a future Trump administration and Gary Gensler’s SEC appointees. He describes Gensler’s recent promotions as part of a strategic effort to cement influence before a possible departure. Stark predicts that a new administration, possibly led by Atkins, might swiftly act to dismantle ongoing cryptocurrency investigations.
SEC’s Preparations and Possible Shutdown
On December 13, 2024, the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance issued guidelines to assist companies in preparing for a potential government shutdown. Such a shutdown could complicate the legal proceedings, introducing delays in decision-making and increasing pressure on all parties involved. While Ripple might benefit from the SEC’s delayed responses by gaining more time to bolster its defense, the final verdict on XRP’s regulatory status could also be postponed, prolonging uncertainty.
