Bitcoin is on the cusp of achieving a significant milestone—reaching $100,000 per coin. Last week, the cryptocurrency reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $99,588, quickly followed by a 7% correction that saw its value drop to $90,791 by Tuesday. However, it showed signs of recovery by Wednesday, and as of Friday, Bitcoin is steadily climbing, currently trading around $97,000.
The Political Landscape: A Catalyst for Bitcoin
The political climate is playing a crucial role in Bitcoin’s current trajectory. With the announcement of Gary Gensler’s departure in January 2025, optimism within the crypto community has soared. This political backing could serve as a significant catalyst, potentially propelling Bitcoin beyond the coveted $100,000 mark. The recent touchpoint of $99,000 underscores the heightened anticipation surrounding Bitcoin’s future.
Bitcoin’s Miner Activity: A Key Indicator
Bitcoin miners offer valuable insights into market trends, particularly through the use of the Puel Multiple. This metric measures miner profitability by comparing the daily mined Bitcoin to the average amount mined over the past year. A high Puel Multiple suggests that miners might sell, increasing market supply, whereas a low Puel Multiple indicates that miners are less inclined to sell, signaling potential market stability.
Currently, the Puel Multiple resides in a mid-range position, suggesting that buying Bitcoin now is akin to purchasing during previous market highs, such as the 2017 bull run. Nonetheless, this mid-range position also hints that the current bull run may not be over, leaving room for Bitcoin to potentially exceed the $100K threshold.
Technical Overview: Where Are We in the Cycle?
The MVRV Z-Score provides additional insight into Bitcoin’s market status. This indicator compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, which is the average price at which it was last traded. A significantly higher market value compared to the realized value might suggest overvaluation, while a lower market value presents an opportune moment for buying.
At present, Bitcoin’s position on the MVRV Z-Score indicates that we are midway through the cycle. Historical patterns suggest that a market peak could occur around March or April 2025. However, some analysts speculate that the bullish cycle may extend into late 2025, drawing parallels to the bull market peak experienced in 2021.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Currently trading in the $94K-$95K range, Bitcoin’s price action is being closely monitored. A confirmed breakout above $97K could pave the way for a potential price target near $104K. However, resistance between $97.5K and $98.12K might present a challenge in the short term.
With substantial support around the $91K-$92K range, Bitcoin’s price dynamics indicate a mix of consolidation and bullish potential. Investors are eagerly watching for a decisive move that could finally push Bitcoin past the $100K resistance, marking a new chapter in its storied journey.
