In recent trading sessions, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a noticeable deceleration in its bullish momentum, particularly in its journey toward the highly anticipated milestone of $100k. Over the past four days, Bitcoin has consistently closed in a bearish manner, falling below the previously established support level of $95k. This shift points to a significant change in market sentiment that investors are closely monitoring.
The Emerging Influence of Altcoins on Bitcoin’s Market Dominance
As the altcoin sector gains traction, Bitcoin’s dominance is showing signs of short-term fragility. On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s dominance has been marked by higher highs; however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is displaying a bearish divergence. This trend indicates a growing shift of investor interest towards altcoins, contributing to the ongoing rotation of capital within the cryptocurrency market.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: A Closer Look at Recent Trends
Following Bitcoin’s peak at $99.5k last week, investor sentiment reflected by extreme greed has tapered from 93% to approximately 75%, signaling a move to a more moderate level of greed. Over the past two days, U.S. spot BTC ETFs have experienced a significant net cash outflow exceeding $550 million, highlighting investor caution. Notably, on Tuesday, U.S. spot BTC ETF issuers reported a net cash outflow of around $122 million.
In particular, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a zero net cash flow on Tuesday. In contrast, Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC experienced substantial outflows of $95 million and $36 million, respectively. Conversely, Bitwise BITB and Grayscale’s BTC were the only issuers with positive cash inflows, registering approximately $6.47 million and $4.84 million, respectively.
Forecasting Bitcoin’s Next Moves
Bitcoin’s price trajectory continues to mirror patterns observed at the end of the previous year. After breaking free from a period of market indecision, Bitcoin rallied and is now oscillating below resistance levels while maintaining higher lows. This pattern suggests potential upward movement in the near future. Investors are advised to remain patient and vigilant as the market evolves.
Following the confirmation of a macro bull rally post-U.S. 2024 elections, Bitcoin’s upward trend is facing a gradual shift as altcoins, led by Ethereum (ETH), begin to gain more attention. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price may retest the support level around $85k if it fails to sustain its current range above $91k.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has speculated that Bitcoin could potentially rally towards $130k before undergoing a substantial correction, a scenario reminiscent of previous bull cycles. Traders and investors should brace for potential volatility as Bitcoin navigates these critical price levels.
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